Report: Ethernet Will Not Dominate 40/100 Gig Nets

While it has become a fixture in virtually every home and business, Ethernet will not dominate multi-gigabit networks to the extent it has dominated sub-gigabit networks, according to Freesky Research's soon-to-be-released report, "40 and 100 Gigabit Networks: Technologies, Markets, Applications."

As LAN speeds increased to a gigabit, the most cost-efficient networks embraced Ethernet as their primary data link protocol. But as LAN, SAN, and MAN speeds surpass a gigabit, the most cost efficient networks are embracing multiple data link protocols. Freesky Research's analysis has found these diverse topologies are not the result of sunk costs in Fibre Channel or Infiniband, but rather the ability to combine low cost, inter-processor links in I/O and storage with low cost, inter-switch links in LANs and data centers. Theoretical concerns about multi-protocol complexity are being shot down by practical concerns about capital budget simplicity.

With MACs and ASICs shipping in exceptionally high volumes, Ethernet port prices declined at more than twice the rate of ATM and FDDI competitors in the late '90s. However, as link layer technologies head up to 40 and 100 Gbps, they are sharing many similar technologies, which is making it much more difficult for any one protocol to gain a cost advantage through volume production.